2008 Michigan Football Preview (Or, If you Can’t Beat ‘Em, Join ‘Em)
by Aaron Morse
August 16th, 2008
Last year was a tough one for the Michigan Wolverines. They began the season with national title aspirations, but those ended right away. Their reputation around the nation took a hit on day one as they were upset by the Appalachian State Mountaineers. The psychological blow of losing to a FCS team carried over to the second week of the season as the Wolverines were blown out by the Oregon Ducks. However, they recovered, and played very strong football down the stretch, including an impressive win in the Capital One Bowl over Heisman winner Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. It was a great send-off for head coach Lloyd Carr and the players carried him off the field to show their appreciation. But this year probably won’t end as triumphantly. New head coach Rich Rodriguez brings his much-hyped version of the spread offense to Ann Arbor. There’s just one problem. At West Virginia he had the sensational Pat White to lead the way at quarterback. At Michigan…he has no one.
Offense
Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington, and Jake Long, do these names sound familiar? They were the stars on an offense that helped propel Michigan to their most recent run of success. Now they are all gone. It will be a struggle this year for Michigan to score points. Their returning leading passer is David Cone, who is not a candidate to start. He has a grand total of 21 passing yards. No one else on the Wolverines has ever thrown a pass in a college football game. Rodriguez has not declared a number one quarterback, but coming out of Spring Ball, a freshman transfer from Georgia Tech by the name of Stephen Threet emerged as the leading candidate to replace Henne. Threet has more mobility than Henne did, but he doesn’t have the quickness to run the read-option that White did for West Virginia. Rodriguez likens Threet to former collegiate star Shaun King, who successfully ran the spread offense as more of a pass-first quarterback who wasn’t necessarily a threat to run. Walk-on sophomore Nick Sheridan is the other leading contender for the quarterback position. Yes, you read that correctly, a walk-on has a chance to start at quarterback for the most successful program in college football history. Sheridan has more mobility than Threet but he really struggled in the Spring Game, throwing three interceptions. However, the blogosphere is full of commentary from very recent practices that Sheridan has been outperforming Threet so far during fall camp, and has been getting the majority of snaps with the first team. This battle for the starting quarterback position could come down to the wire. Whoever starts against Utah in the opener will be on a very short leash indeed. Of course, there’s also an outside chance that true freshman Justin Feagin could get a shot as well, considering he’s faster than both Threet and Sheridan.
Luckily for the Maize and Blue, whoever does start at quarterback won’t be expected to do much more than not screw up and hand the ball off to Brandon Minor. The junior filled in for Hart at times last year when Hart was down with various injuries and did a very solid job, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He is a more explosive runner than Hart and fits into Rodriguez’s version of the spread perfectly. He could emerge in the next two years as one of the Big Ten’s top runners.
However, Minor will have to have a good offensive line to produce big numbers this year for the Wolverines, and Michigan lost four of their five starters on that unit. Only sophomore right tackle Steve Schilling returns. However, Michigan’s success, at least when they drop back to pass, will be determined by how well junior left tackle Mark Ortmann replaces Jake Long. Protecting the quarterback’s blind side is one of the most important tasks in all of football, and if Ortmann is up to the challenge, Threet/Sheridan/Feagin might have more success than anticipated. Ortmann has some starting experience at right tackle, and has occasionally seen some snaps at left tackle over his time in Ann Arbor, but the bottom line is he is just another question mark on a team full of them. The rest of the line will be filled out by junior guards Tim McAvoy and Corey Zirbel. Both are inexperienced and under 300 pounds. However, Michigan uses a zone-blocking scheme similar to the Denver Broncos, so size doesn’t matter as much on their line as it would on others. This aspect is NOT new this year, so the linemen, although inexperienced in game situations, do understand the theory and technique behind their blocking schemes. Meanwhile, the center position is a battle between junior David Moosman, who has seen limited action during his time with the Wolverines, and redshirt freshman David Molk. Molk was considered the best center in the country coming out of high school by some scouting agencies, so look for him to emerge as a force sooner rather than later.
When Minor isn’t running as fast as he can behind his inexperienced offensive line, Threet/Sheridan/Feagin is going to need someone to throw to. With both Manningham and Arrington leaving for the NFL, the Wolverines are left with a group of…you guessed it…inexperienced receivers. Rodriguez has openly admitted that he’s still looking for a slot receiver (think Eric Peterman) but has not been able to find one with the current personnel. That’s bad…considering a slot receiver is crucial to running the spread offense. Junior Greg Matthews is the Wolverines’ most experienced receiver, having started five games last year, catching 39 balls for 366 yards and three touchdowns (although one of those touchdown catches was against Notre Dame so that doesn’t really count). Sophomore wide receiver Junior Hemingway, who has four career catches will be the other starter. Meanwhile, sophomore Toney Clemons, who has one career catch on his resume is being given the chance to be the slot receiver for Michigan.
Bottom line: Expect a heavy dose of Minor, Minor, and more Minor.
Defense
Believe it or not, the sky is not falling in Ann Arbor. That’s because the Wolverines still have one of the best defenses in the Big Ten. They return seven starters on this side of the ball. Early last season it appeared that Michigan was hopeless against the spread offense. But there’s enough talent here to keep Michigan in most of their games. It all starts with Terrance Taylor. The big defensive tackle (319 pounds of muscle) is a force to be reckoned with. Good look running up the middle against Taylor, he had 55 tackles last year, the most by a Michigan nose tackle in over a decade. Passing is going to be a risky proposition against the Wolverines as well. You heard it here first: fifth year senior defensive end Tim Jamison will lead the Big Ten in sacks this year. The other end is returning starter Brandon Graham who actually had more sacks than Jamison last year, so he’s no slouch either.
The middle linebacker is often known as the “quarterback” of the defense, and Michigan has a good one in last year’s team leader in tackles: sophomore Obi Ezeh. While Ezeh is the only standout in the relatively inexperienced group of linebackers, Rodriguez is extremely confident in this group because of the depth. Five guys will be competing for three spots, and they all will make significant contributions for the Maize and Blue this year.
If somehow the opposing quarterback avoids being sacked by Jamison or Graham, he won’t like what he sees downfield…only the best cornerback combination in the Big Ten. Sophomore Donovan Warren and fifth year senior Morgan Trent are both cornerbacks who can man-up on any receiver in the conference without fear. The safeties are new, but have played significant minutes in the past. Junior free safety Stevie Brown had the best spring performance of ANYONE on the defense, and strong safety Brandon Harrison loves to hit, so don’t even bother going over the middle on this team.
Bottom line: This is a defense that is good enough to win a few games by themselves, and they may have to in order for Michigan to reach a bowl game.
Special Teams
Special teams didn’t exactly help the Wolverines in their opener against App. State last year. Poor Jason Gingell had a couple of kicks blocked, and yeah, you know the rest. Gingell was replaced halfway through the year by K.C. Lopata. Technically they’re both “competing” for the job, but don’t be surprised if it’s Lopata from day one. He made 11/12 field goals after replacing Gingell, who had made 3 of 9 at the time. Punting wise, the position is set as Zoltan Mesko returns as a candidate for the 2008 Ray Guy Award. Forget punting, I’m not sure which is cooler, the fact that Michigan’s punter’s name is Zoltan, or that he weighs in at 235 pounds! Either way, he’ll see lots of action this year as Michigan struggles to move the ball. All that needs to be said about Michigan’s return game is that Desmond Howard is not walking through that door.
Outlook
Michigan will start 3-0. Utah, Miami of Ohio and the joke that is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish do not present much of a challenge. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of Wisconsin and Illinois. However, Illinois doesn’t have a quality running back and Juice Williams can be forced into making horrific decisions, so I think Michigan’s D will pull that one out. It also helps that it’s a home game. After beating Toledo, the Wolverines stand at 5-1 and feel pretty good about themselves. But then they go to Happy Valley and the not so happy Penn State squad (which hasn’t exactly had much success against Michigan in recent years) takes out their pent-up rage and buries the Wolverines. Then a much-improved Michigan State squad marches into the Big House and pulls out a last second win. Then Curtis Painter does just enough to lead the Boilermakers to victory. All of a sudden, the Wolverines find themselves at 5-4 and take their anger out on hapless Minnesota to run their mark to 6-4. Then there’s the Northwestern game…the make or break game of Michigan’s schedule, a win, and they clinch a bowl for sure, a loss, and 6-6 might not be enough. This game is a toss-up, an excellent offense versus an excellent defense, and an inexperienced at best offense versus a question mark of a defense. Much more will be known later, but I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a Northwestern victory thanks to a last minute interception by Malcolm Arrington. Then Michigan’s season ends with a thud as they get blasted by Ohio State. But it doesn’t really end, they’re Michigan! Even a 6-6 mark will be enough to get to some Podunk bowl game…which they’ll win by a score of 10-0 (with the only TD scored by the defense).
