Can RichRod turn UM Around?
by Daniel Hamburg
June 30th, 2009
Last year was tough for the Maize and Blue, much to the delight of the Big Ten. Will Year 2 bring Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez the success he was expected to bring to Ann Arbor?
Offense: To say that the Michigan Wolverines struggled offensively in year one of the Rich Rodriguez era would be an understatement. They ranked dead last in Big 10 in nearly every offensive category, scoring a mere 20.3 points a game and averaging a paltry 290.8 yards. While it would be convenient to blame the Wolverines anemic offense in 2008 on the adjustment to Rodriguez’s spread offense, the real issue was that Michigan lacked its traditional store of offensive talent. But that should change with the arrival of freshman quarterback Tate Forcier.
Due to Steve Threet transferring and Nick Sheridan’s lackluster play, Forcier is slated to be the opening-day starter for the Wolverines. Forcier has outstanding arm strength and athletic ability, and will be surrounded by a corps of capable if unspectacular skill players. Senior running back Brandon Minor figures to get the majority of the carries for the Wolverines, and sophomore Martavious Odoms, who led Michigan in both receptions and yards, will be Forcier’s main target at wide receiver. An offensive line which gave up 22 sacks last year returns all five starters.
Just how much progress the offense makes this year will be largely determined by how quickly Forcier can adapt to the college game. While Forcier has all of the tools to be a very good quarterback, a few rough outings early in the season may rattle his confidence and set back his development.
Defense: Michigan’s defense was supposed to be the one of the best in the Big 10, if not the country in 2008, but it failed to live up to its billing. The Wolverines simply could not get off the field, forcing only 20 turnovers and allowing opponents to convert nearly 40% of their third down attempts. To give a little more bite to the Wolverines D, Athletic Director Bill Martin hired Greg Robinson as Michigan’s new defensive coordinator. As a long time NFL defensive coordinator, Robinson built his reputation using a 3-4 scheme, and he will bring this approach to Michigan this season.
Will the Wolverines be well-suited for this new strategy? Two returning defensive ends, senior Brandon Graham and sophomore Ryan VanBergen will be crucial to Michigan’s defensive success in 2009. Graham is an established playmaker. He led the team in sacks, tackles for a loss and forced fumbles last season. Michigan will need him to repeat this performance and VanBergen to realize his potential if they are to once again become a force in the Big 10. Equally important will be the battle for defensive tackle, with sophomore Mike Martin trying to stave off talented freshman William Campbell.
Even if the defensive line comes through for the Wolverines, Michigan will struggle in the secondary, where they return only one starter, junior cornerback Donovan Warren. While he has been solid in the past, Rodriguez and Robinson need him to turn in to a shut-down corner this year to make up for inexperience in the rest of the secondary. On the opposite side of the field, sophomore Boubacar Cissoko saw some action as back-up last year, but both safeties, Troy Woolfolk and Michael Williams are almost completely untested.
Special Teams: With so many questions surrounding the 2009 Wolverines, they can at least count on senior punter Zoltan Mesko. Mesko is one of the best punters in the country, averaging 43 yards per boot. However, there is no such certainty with the Michigan kicking game. Junior Bryan Wright handled kick-off duties last season, but will step up to field goals this season. If he falters, the Wolverines could have real problems. Neither of the other kickers on the roster, both upperclassmen, has appeared in a game. Michigan never lacks for good athletes to return kickoffs and punts, and look for Cissoko to be one of their stalwarts.
Overall: The Maize and Blue will be back…but not this season. First, I have little confidence in Robinson’s ability to turn around the defense. During his three year tenure at Syracuse, Robinson compiled a 10-37 record. Even prior to the college game, Robinson’s star seemed to have faded, as his Kansas City Chiefs’ defenses were among the NFL’s worst.
As for the offense, the running game will clearly be the Wolverines’ strength. Brandon Minor seems poised for a breakout season and junior running back Carlos Brown offers a nice change of pace. Michigan needs big contributions from these two and the rest of their deep backfield, because the passing game looks bleak. Forcier is going could be a very good collegiate player, but it is rare that a freshmen quarterback can come in and cut up Big 10 defenses. Without time to learn the game from the sidelines or a Mario Manningham/Braylon Edwards-type target to rely on, I envision a rough transition for Forcier.
However, Michigan’s schedule does work in their favor. They play eight of their twelve games at home. Their toughest non-conference foe is Notre Dame, who they will face in the friendly confines of the Big House. Finally, an Ohio State team which figures to rebuilding as well has to come to Ann Arbor, giving Michigan a window of hope of beating their bitter rivals, something which they have failed to do in five seasons.
Prediction:
Overall: 5-7
Conference: 2-6
